The seesaw battle between supply and demand is long fought, but currently the UK housing market is buckling under the strain, desperate for reinforcements, as supply struggles to keep up.

Last week saw Savills adjust their property forecast with an upward trajectory predicting Average UK house prices to rise +4 pc in 2021, with +21.1 pc total growth expected from 2021-2025.  Estate Agencies are known for living in the here and now, so they may be overly optimistic, as they are currently surfing the stamp duty holiday extension and post pandemic ‘need for change’. 

What happens after, will be the true litmus test. 

As the UK experiences huge rising house prices, Central London has lagged behind. The general zeitgeist of ‘working from home’, has buoyed buyers to seek greener pastures away from the once shimmering city lights for quieter, leafy suburbs or rural pastures. 

The exodus has resulted in bidding wars that in some cases have begun before a viewing has even commenced. With buyers’ homes under offer, the desperation to find somewhere before the stamp duty ends or before their own completion, has resulted in scenes reminiscent of the latest iPhone release. As a new phone’s sparkle diminishes so too can the much coveted home lose its luster, if you don’t first research the area or get to truly explore the property. 

Malcolm Gladwell’s book ‘blink’, claims a person will formulate an opinion within 2 seconds of seeing something or somebody. So maybe buyers instinctively know, or, in this case could ‘need’ be colouring peoples judgement?

Many have moved under the premise of life as it is now, but what will it feel like when lockdown has been lifted? 

Commercial property has been hit hard by the pandemic and no more so than in country villages and high streets. For those who moved assuming the high street would provide all their pared down needs, they may be dismayed to find the local no longer exists and the parade of shops at half occupancy. The sprawling metropolis that is London, may have seemed suffocating in the past year but it offers variety in abundance, and I wonder whether some may question their hasty move when the options are limited to coffee and charity shops and the odd Boots chain. 

London may have seen the smallest rise in house prices at 3.5pc but some savvy investors have seized on the opportunity to pick up discarded apartments or buy to let stock, in anticipation of rents rebounding next year when the city’s lights return in technicolour. As if vindicated, rents have already started to rise as jobs return with the opening of premises new and old, looking to cash in on the post lockdown euphoria expected. Meanwhile, overseas buyers unperturbed by the additional 2 per cent surcharge, now payable for purchases in the UK, have utilised their solicitors know how, by clubbing together with other investors to buy 6 or more properties. In some cases, reducing their stamp duty bill by 60 pc. 

Well, if you can afford it, wouldn’t you? 

The million dollar question, will it last?

With the average house price rising to £254,606 in March, for some the only way is up. In reality, nothing can withhold this level of intensity. With the vaccine rolled out and kids back at school, confidence in listing will return and more property will emerge. By the end of 2022 life will hopefully be settled in the new norm and so house prices may follow suit. But for those seeking to capitalise on a property slump, I’d be wary of sitting it out, for those who sell are equally patient and can afford to wait for the next big wave to come along.